Power System Planning for IRRP Development in CARICOM States
In 2020, Energynautics together with partners Cadmus were commissioned by the German International Cooperation, GIZ GmbH, to support the Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE) in the development of integrated resource and resilience plans (IRRP) for the two CARICOM member states of Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago.
Within the larger and interdisciplinary planning framework that executes the IRRP development, Energynautics and Cadmus were tasked with developing power system expansion plans with a time horizon of 25 years. These were to include potentially large shares of renewable energy to ensure compliance with the respective country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.
Energynautics used the mixed integer based energy system planning and optimization software Energy Exemplar PLEXOS in conjunction with grid simulation software sites DIgSILENT PowerFactory and ETAP to develop economically and technically feasible least-regret power system expansion plans for both countries. Tasks executed include:
- Development of demand projection scenarios (primarily done by Cadmus);
- Long term co-optimization of generation and grid capacity in PLEXOS;
- Adequacy and risk assessment in PLEXOS;
- Full chronology production simulation in hourly resolution for selected years within the time frame in PLEXOS, including optimization of spinning reserves and storage capacity use;
- Static and dynamic power system analysis for selected situations in PowerFactory and ETAP.
Results obtained turned out to be quite interesting and different due to the much different characteristics of each country and power system.
Trinidad and Tobago has large hydrocarbon resources and a large share of established industry based on that. Generation as of today is 100 % based on natural gas. Results show that wind as well as PV in conjunction with batteries will become economically feasible in the coming years despite low prices for domestic gas, and can be utilized without compromising system security. For the island of Tobago, a pathway towards 100% renewable energy in 2040 was shown to be feasible.
Guyana comprises one larger and multiple small power systems and expects an enormous uptake in electricity demand in the coming years due to recently found hydrocarbon resources. Studies hence focused heavily on generation and transmission expansion as well as stability questions, but also yielded the result that PV, potentially with batteries added, should be a major contributor to cover the massive electricity demand in coming decades.
Capacity expansion planning results will be included in the final IRRPs for both countries, which are still under development under the lead of CARICOM and CCREEE at this point (November 2022).