EWR Netz GmbH, a German distribution system operator (DSO), required a comprehensive assessment of their medium-voltage (MV) grid’s capacity to accommodate the energy transition through 2045. The study focused on two key drivers: the integration of distributed generation from ground-mounted PV systems and wind power plants, as well as the electrification of end-use sectors, including electric vehicle charging hubs and electrolyzers.

Building on a previous distribution grid adequacy study conducted by Energynautics, this analysis employed scenarios with high geographic granularity to identify potential asset overloading and areas requiring grid reinforcement.

Energynautics developed detailed scenarios through 2045, incorporating:

• Technical potential assessment for wind and solar PV expansion utilizing open-access solar and wind power siting potential data
• Load and generation projections on a distribution substation granularity based on regional expansion goals as well as electric vehicle and hydrogen demand studies, applying realistic maximum coincidence factors
• Geographic analysis with high spatial resolution to accurately map distributed energy resources and loads across the MV grid
• Assessment of equipment loading identifying specific substations vulnerable to overloading under various growth scenarios
• Long-term analysis determining when grid upgrades or alternative solutions would be required based on defined scenarios

The study provides EWR Netz GmbH with actionable insights for strategic network planning:

• Recommendations on long-term distribution grid planning and modelling
• Clear identification of grid bottlenecks with time of occurrence
• Support for regulatory discussions and network development plans with transparent scenarios based on detailed geographic data assessment