With the increasing electrification of the mobility and heating sectors and distributed generation on the rise, grid loads become significantly more dynamic. The risks for load peaks increase, putting pressure on the existing electricity grid, particularly at the low-voltage level. The advancement of the grid infrastructure in a secure and future-oriented manner is therefore reliant on a robust and data-driven evaluation of the electrification in the low-voltage grid.

On behalf of the Thüga Gruppe (Thüga Group), Germany’s largest network of municipal energy and utility companies, Energynautics and geodata specialist enwarp gmbh developed a new web-based tool that provides detailed long-term load and generation forecasts for low-voltage networks.

Energynautics led on developing the underlying methodology, which quantifies electrification in the low-voltage grid by identifying the additional electrical capacity required during the energy transition at a high local resolution. This methodology has been successfully applied and refined in pilot projects with three German distribution system operators (DSOs).

Based on a robust bottom-up approach, the methodological design included the following steps:

• Calculation of building-level projections for electric vehicles (EV), heat pumps (HP), and rooftop solar (PV)
• Scaling based on national and regional expansion targets for EV, HP, and PV, based on the German network development plan (NEP), the six DSO regional scenarios, and other forecasts.
• Rooftop PV potential assessment using detailed LiDAR-based analysis for each building.
• Integration of socio-economic and geo-technical factors, including willingness-to-pay and infrastructure availability such as garages for EV deployment.
• Consideration of existing and planned district and local heating networks.
• Development of a web-based tool to support high-resolution local analysis and enable flexible scenario creation that allow for adjustments to policy changes and technological developments.

In May 2025 the web-based tool was rolled out to all distribution system operators across Germany, offering DSOs a flexible and customizable solution for evaluating crucial grid developments. Since the system maps all key load and generation drivers, the results can be directly integrated into existing grid planning processes, especially for long-term distribution network development plans and hosting capacity analyses.