Analysis of EWR distribution grid adequacy based on geographically detailed load and generation projections
Within the project, Energynautics analyzed the future growth of distributed generation and end-use electrification and its impact on the distribution networks of the EWR grid operator.
For this purpose, expansion targets at national and regional level were assessed and mapped against
- the availability of rooftop area,
- car ownership
- and the availability of land for ground-mounted solar and wind power plants in a correlation analysis.
As a result, projections of distributed generation, including wind power, ground-mounted solar and rooftop solar generation, were determined as well as prognoses for end-use electrification, including electric vehicles, heat pumps and power-to-X. Scenarios up to 2040 were developed on a distribution substation granularity in the EWR network area to determine potential congestion of distribution grid assets.
The results showed in which areas distribution network upgrades or other solutions might be necessary and when, helping EWR in their long-term distribution network planning.
The figure shows an exemplary section of the EWR distribution grid and the maximum loading of distribution substations for different electric vehicle adoption scenarios, under the assumption of maximum expected coincidence factors for EV charging
Projected expansion of wind power plants in the EWR grid area